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Races › Texas › 38th District

Texas’ 38th District

Includes Tomball, Jersey Village, Piney Point Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Spring Valley Village and other towns

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · general election

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U.S. House of Representatives

38th Congressional District18 filed with the FEC$4.7M raised by the field

Jon Bonck · Melissa McDonough · Alex McMenemy

$2.2M raised$248.2K cash on hand
Compare Jon Bonck
Their first priorities
1. Secure the Border
2. Protect Life
3. Defend Our Kids
In their words
1. Secure the Border
2. Protect Life
3. Defend Our Kids
and 5 more, in the campaign’s own order. Read them in their words
Money
Raised
$2.2M
Spent
$2M
Cash on hand
$248.2K
FEC filings through Oct 14, 2026
On the ballot
Won the general election
Nov 3, 2026 · 157,261 votes (51.5%)
Open full recordFEC H6TX02244
$124.7K raised$44.4K cash on hand
Compare Melissa McDonough
Their first priorities
1. Economy
2. Education
3. Elections
In their words
1. Economy
2. Education
3. Elections
and 22 more, in the campaign’s own order. Read them in their words
Money
Raised
$124.7K
Spent
$103K
Cash on hand
$44.4K
FEC filings through Oct 14, 2026
On the ballot
Lost the general election
Nov 3, 2026 · 144,397 votes (47.3%) · 2 of 3
Open full recordFEC H4TX38011
$9.9K raised$746 cash on hand
Compare Alex McMenemy
No published priorities shown yet

Held by Wesley Hunt R (not running in the 2026 cycle)

Polls

Every public poll of the TX-38 House race this cycle, as published. A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast.

Republican primary

Primary March 3, 2026 · runoff May 26, 2026 · 1 poll

RJon Bonck
RShelly deZevallos
RMichael Pratt

Primary result and the final polls

Jon Bonck won by 28 points. The final poll had Jon Bonck +12, understating Jon Bonck's margin by 16 points.

Poll	Jon Bonck	Shelly deZevallos	Lead	vs. result
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairsended Feb 10	22%	10%	Jon Bonck +12	−16
Median of the final polls			Jon Bonck +12	−16
Result	46.8%	18.9%	Jon Bonck +28

March 3, 2026 · Result (unofficial) · Each pollster's last poll ending in the 21 days before the vote, read for the two leading finishers; the median leaves out polls a side paid for

Election result and the final polls

James Talarico won by 12.1 points. The 19 final polls had a median of James Talarico +3, understating James Talarico's margin by 9.1 points.

Poll	James Talarico	Ken Paxton	Lead	vs. result
Research Co.ended Nov 2	49%	46%	James Talarico +3	−9.1
The New York Times/Siena Universityended Nov 1	50.2%	43.1%	James Talarico +7.1	−5
Emerson Collegeended Nov 1	49.8%	48.4%	James Talarico +1.4	−10.7
AtlasIntelended Nov 1	51.3%	45.4%	James Talarico +5.9	−6.2
Kreate Strategiesended Oct 30	48%	45%	James Talarico +3	−9.1
YouGovended Oct 29	51%	47%	James Talarico +4	−8.1
Quantus Insightsended Oct 28 · led with the loser	48.4%	49.4%	Ken Paxton +1	−13.1
ActiVoteended Oct 28	52.1%	47.9%	James Talarico +4.2	−7.9
A2 Insightsended Oct 27	50.2%	47.2%	James Talarico +3	−9.1
CNN/SSRSended Oct 27	49%	43%	James Talarico +6	−6.1
Data for Progressended Oct 26	49%	45%	James Talarico +4	−8.1
YouGov Blueended Oct 26	51%	43%	James Talarico +8	−4.1
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Centerended Oct 25	49%	47%	James Talarico +2	−10.1
Verasightended Oct 20	47.6%	45.2%	James Talarico +2.4	−9.7
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Researchended Oct 19 · led with the loser	49%	49%	Tied	−12.1
Slingshot Strategiesended Oct 18	51%	47%	James Talarico +4	−8.1
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairsended Oct 14	48%	46%	James Talarico +2	−10.1
InsiderAdvantageended Oct 14 · led with the loser	48.1%	48.5%	Ken Paxton +0.4	−12.5
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Groupended Oct 13	49%	44%	James Talarico +5	−7.1
Median of the final polls			James Talarico +3	−9.1
Result	55.0%	42.9%	James Talarico +12.1

November 3, 2026 · Result (unofficial, 98.99% reporting) · Each pollster's last poll ending in the 21 days before the vote, read for the two leading finishers; the median leaves out polls a side paid for

Democratic primary

Primary March 3, 2026 · 15 polls

James Talarico leads Jasmine Crockett by 10.2 points · average gap, 3 latest nonpartisan polls · 2 far-off polls left out

DJames Talarico51.9% median
DJasmine Crockett46.5% median
DColin Allred42% median
DBeto O’Rourke25% median
DJoaquin Castro13% median
DAhmad Hassan0.2% median

Each dot is a poll. The line is the median of the 5 latest nonpartisan polls. How polls are read

Primary result and the final polls

James Talarico won by 6.2 points. The 4 final polls had a median of James Talarico +8.8, overstating James Talarico's margin by 2.6 points.

Poll	James Talarico	Jasmine Crockett	Lead	vs. result
YouGovended Mar 2	53%	40%	James Talarico +13	+6.8
Emerson Collegeended Feb 28	52.1%	46.5%	James Talarico +5.6	−0.6
Blueprint Pollingended Feb 24	51.9%	40%	James Talarico +11.9	+5.7
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Researchended Feb 22 · led with the loser	37%	55%	Jasmine Crockett +18	−24.2
Median of the final polls			James Talarico +8.8	+2.6
Result	52.5%	46.2%	James Talarico +6.2

March 3, 2026 · Result (unofficial) · Each pollster's last poll ending in the 21 days before the vote, read for the two leading finishers; the median leaves out polls a side paid for

Republican primary

Primary March 3, 2026 · runoff May 26, 2026 · 28 polls

Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn by 7 points · average gap, 4 latest nonpartisan polls · 1 far-off poll left out

RKen Paxton48% median
RJohn Cornyn43.4% median
RWesley Hunt15% median
RRonny Jackson

Poll	Jon Bonck	Shelly deZevallos	Lead	vs. result
Result	64.8%	35.3%	Jon Bonck +29.5

Primary result and the final polls

John Cornyn won by 1.5 points. The 5 final polls had a median of Ken Paxton +4, understating John Cornyn's margin by 5.5 points.

Poll	John Cornyn	Ken Paxton	Lead	vs. result
YouGovended Mar 2 · led with the loser	32%	36%	Ken Paxton +4	−5.5
Emerson Collegeended Feb 28 · led with the loser	35.9%	39.8%	Ken Paxton +3.9	−5.4
Quantus Insightsended Feb 26 · led with the loser	36.7%	42.5%	Ken Paxton +5.8	−7.3
Blueprint Pollingended Feb 24 · led with the loser	29.9%	41.5%	Ken Paxton +11.6	−13.1
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Researchended Feb 22	41%	35%	John Cornyn +6	+4.5
Median of the final polls			Ken Paxton +4	−5.5
Result	42.0%	40.5%	John Cornyn +1.5

March 3, 2026 · Result (unofficial) · Each pollster's last poll ending in the 21 days before the vote, read for the two leading finishers; the median leaves out polls a side paid for

Runoff result and the final polls

Ken Paxton won by 27.7 points. The final poll had Ken Paxton +9.3, understating Ken Paxton's margin by 18.4 points.

Poll	Ken Paxton	John Cornyn	Lead	vs. result
Quantus Insightsended May 23	52.7%	43.4%	Ken Paxton +9.3	−18.4
Median of the final polls			Ken Paxton +9.3	−18.4
Result	63.8%	36.2%	Ken Paxton +27.7

May 26, 2026 · Result (unofficial, 99% reporting) · Each pollster's last poll ending in the 21 days before the vote and after the first round, read for the two leading finishers; the median leaves out polls a side paid for

How to vote in Texas

How to vote in Texas

United States Senate

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