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Loading this candidate’s profile from the FEC filings and campaign records.
Where They Stand is a nonpartisan guide to everyone running for Congress: their money, their own words and how incumbents voted. Find your ballot →
Candidates › Texas U.S. Senate race › 2025–2026
IndependentU.S. SenateTexas
Has not served in Congress
No campaign site or public profiles are attached to this record yet.
Joshua Cain’s words are not shown
Campaign committee · 2025–2026 · latest available filing · Official FEC bulk data
No receipts reported
Money groups spent on their own, not through a campaign. Each ad is filed against the candidate it names, so money attacking an opponent shows on the opponent’s row. Open a candidate to see who spent it.
Each group that spent in this race is followed to where its own money came from, and what it spent is split by those shares: a group whose money was 60% one person's counts as 60% of its spending theirs. Of what traced, 53% to named individuals, 23% to organizations, 17% to tax-exempt organizations that need not name their donors, 6.8% not itemized in the filings.
| Name | Amount |
|---|---|
| Person · CEO, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. · behind Texas PAC and America PAC and 3 more | $104.7M |
| Organization · tax-exempt: need not name its donors · behind Texas PAC and Lone Star Liberty PAC | $45.1M |
| Person · Partner, Greylock Partners · behind Lone Star Rising PAC and Texas Forever and 2 more | $18M |
| Person · Physician, Adelson Drug Clinic · behind Texas PAC and Maga Inc. and 2 more | $12.6M |
| Organization · behind Texas Forever and Lower Costs NOW and 1 more | $11.3M |
| Person · Chairman & CEO, Blackstone · behind Texas PAC and Texans for a Conservative Majority and 3 more | $9.2M |
| Person · Chairman and CEO, SED Holdings · behind Texans for a Conservative Majority | $7.5M |
| Organization · behind Lone Star Liberty PAC | $6.5M |
| Organization · behind Conservative Texans PAC and Texans Demanding Accountability | $5.9M |
| Organization · behind Defend US PAC | $5.4M |
| Organization · behind Texans for a Conservative Majority | $5.3M |
| Person · President, EMC · behind Texas PAC | $4.8M |
Read for the 20 largest groups of 123, 96% of the $476.1M spent. Shares are of what each group received, not a record of which dollar went where; an organization that need not name its donors ends the trail; a person who gave by more than one route is counted once here. It shows who stood behind the money, not what it was for.
No itemized payments
Not read yet
No ballot result matched to this candidate
Election November 3, 2026 · 65 polls of this matchup
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 4.1 points · average gap, 5 latest nonpartisan polls
Each dot is a poll. The line is the median of the 5 latest nonpartisan polls. How polls are read
James Talarico won by 12.1 points. The 19 final polls had a median of James Talarico +3, understating James Talarico's margin by 9.1 points.
| Poll | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Lead | vs. result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.ended Nov 2 | 49% | 46% | James Talarico +3 | −9.1 |
| The New York Times/Siena Universityended Nov 1 | 50.2% | 43.1% | James Talarico +7.1 | −5 |
| Emerson Collegeended Nov 1 | 49.8% | 48.4% | James Talarico +1.4 | −10.7 |
| AtlasIntelended Nov 1 | 51.3% | 45.4% | James Talarico +5.9 | −6.2 |
| Kreate Strategiesended Oct 30 | 48% | 45% | James Talarico +3 | −9.1 |
| YouGovended Oct 29 | 51% | 47% | James Talarico +4 | −8.1 |
| Quantus Insightsended Oct 28 · led with the loser | 48.4% | 49.4% | Ken Paxton +1 | −13.1 |
Pairings that are not the race on the ballot: candidates who lost a primary or withdrew, or a party's unnamed nominee. They are not charted.
Poll data from The New York Times, licensed CC BY 4.0 · Updated November 10, 2026 · 58 polls paid for by a party or campaign are left out
The FEC counts someone as a candidate once they raise or spend more than $5,000.
Official FEC filing record for the current cycle. The priorities they publish are quoted from their own site, in their order.
No campaign pages quoted
| ActiVoteended Oct 28 | 52.1% | 47.9% | James Talarico +4.2 | −7.9 |
|---|
| A2 Insightsended Oct 27 | 50.2% | 47.2% | James Talarico +3 | −9.1 |
|---|
| CNN/SSRSended Oct 27 | 49% | 43% | James Talarico +6 | −6.1 |
|---|
| Data for Progressended Oct 26 | 49% | 45% | James Talarico +4 | −8.1 |
|---|
| YouGov Blueended Oct 26 | 51% | 43% | James Talarico +8 | −4.1 |
|---|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Centerended Oct 25 | 49% | 47% | James Talarico +2 | −10.1 |
|---|
| Verasightended Oct 20 | 47.6% | 45.2% | James Talarico +2.4 | −9.7 |
|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Researchended Oct 19 · led with the loser | 49% | 49% | Tied | −12.1 |
|---|
| Slingshot Strategiesended Oct 18 | 51% | 47% | James Talarico +4 | −8.1 |
|---|
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairsended Oct 14 | 48% | 46% | James Talarico +2 | −10.1 |
|---|
| InsiderAdvantageended Oct 14 · led with the loser | 48.1% | 48.5% | Ken Paxton +0.4 | −12.5 |
|---|
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Groupended Oct 13 | 49% | 44% | James Talarico +5 | −7.1 |
|---|
| Median of the final polls | James Talarico +3 | −9.1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result | 55.0% | 42.9% | James Talarico +12.1 |
November 3, 2026 · Result (unofficial, 98.99% reporting) · Each pollster's last poll ending in the 21 days before the vote, read for the two leading finishers; the median leaves out polls a side paid for